Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x786f…034a crypto 929 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$464 (-6%) realized −$464 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%458W / 471L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$165
14 days−$183
30 days−$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$650
other 0% −$11
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 52% -15.2%
≤30d 339 -14.9% -23.0% 49% 47% -22.2%
≤90d 545 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 50% -19.9%
all 929 -1.7% -11.1% 49% 47% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 47% -17.2%
10% -19.6% 44% -25.2%
15% -27.4% 38% -32.4%
20% -34.5% 32% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$464
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses458 / 471
Open positions0
Markets (closed)929 / 929
History coverage159d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 929 Trades
no open positions (298 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$8 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$13 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$22 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$7 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $13 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $19 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $34 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $14 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2124 history records