Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x786f…fb73 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-51%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$15
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.3% -56.0% 20% 20% -58.1%
≤30d 5 -51.3% -56.0% 20% 20% -58.1%
≤90d 5 -51.3% -56.0% 20% 20% -58.1%
all 5 -51.3% -56.0% 20% 20% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.0% 20% -58.1%
10% -60.2% 20% -62.1%
15% -64.0% 20% -65.8%
20% -67.6% 20% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.94 (match) · 9 history records