Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x786f…1dcd crypto 254 markets active 6h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$136 (-3%) realized −$138 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate30%70W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day59.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$199
14 days−$254
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$240
sports 12% −$9
finance 6% −$1
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -12.0% -20.4% 29% 12% -14.5%
≤30d 236 -9.5% -18.2% 30% 14% -14.3%
≤90d 236 -9.5% -18.2% 30% 14% -14.3%
all 236 -9.5% -18.2% 30% 14% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 14% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 10% -22.5%
15% -33.1% 8% -30.0%
20% -39.7% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses70 / 166
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions18
Markets (closed)236 / 254
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day59.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $147 $149 +$2 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $128 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Under 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Over 13¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Under 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +50%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$7 +238%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$6 +158%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +57%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$5 +414%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $114 +$10 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $80 +$7 +8%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 6h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 87¢ $4 10h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 21¢ $1 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $8 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 12h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $35 12h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $1 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $1 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 18h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 73¢ $0 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 32h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 79¢ $8 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 63¢ $6 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 75¢ $8 32h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 86¢ $9 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.61 · official $524.62 (match) · 794 history records