Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x786e…074e crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-16%) realized −$23 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$53
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -26.3% -33.3% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤90d 13 -19.5% -27.2% 31% 31% -43.3%
all 13 -19.5% -27.2% 31% 31% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 31% -43.3%
10% -34.1% 31% -48.8%
15% -40.5% 31% -53.7%
20% -46.3% 31% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage32d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EUR/USD hit 1.40 (High) in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$8 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 26 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $26 +$16 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.24 · official $8.24 (match) · 27 history records