Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x786d…b89b
other · 59 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$311 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$337 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized+$337
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage186d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 5 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 28¢ 30¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Kast win by 20% to 25%? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12? No 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-02-13? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? No 58¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $50 +$151 +303%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $20 −$19 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $100 +$71 +71%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $100 +$179 +179%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 18 $30 +$31 +104%
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Feb 18 $20 +$23 +117%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Feb 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Feb 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 16 $28 +$128 +456%
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $50 −$24 -47%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Feb 14 $10 +$13 +128%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 05 $20 +$118 +589%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 05 $40 +$242 +606%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves? Feb 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season? Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in February? Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $20 +$129 +646%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 29 $17 +$112 +656%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 26 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 20 $22 +$37 +170%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 13? Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Deel IPO by March 31? Jan 12 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 12? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%? Dec 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$264
sports 25% +$63
world 14% −$64
crypto 13% +$506
politics 8% +$154
weather 4% −$60
economics 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 8¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 1h
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 63d
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 63d
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 55¢ $171 67d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 67d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 96¢ $279 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 67d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 67d
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $45 106d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 115d
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 115d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 115d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 115d
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 115d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 116d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 24¢ $25 116d
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 118d
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 118d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 118d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 118d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 119d
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 119d
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-02-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 120d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 120d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 120d
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +42.1% +28.6% 50% 50% +60.2%
all 54 +0.7% -8.9% 22% 22% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 22% +11.7%
10% -17.6% 22% +1.0%
15% -25.6% 22% -8.8%
20% -32.9% 22% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.44 · official $150.44 (match) · 89 history records