Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x786d…cf55 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$3
politics 24% −$2
crypto 20% +$16
economics 4% $0
sports 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +104.1% +84.6% 100% 100% +84.6%
all 12 -3.1% -12.4% 25% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 25% -10.4%
10% -20.7% 25% -19.0%
15% -28.4% 25% -26.8%
20% -35.4% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage301d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? No 99¢ 99¢ $188 $188 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Apr 01 $1 +$1 +104%
CA Mineiro vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 10AM ET Feb 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 07 $14 +$13 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 15 $16 +$15 +96%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $80 −$2 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? Sep 22 $22 −$1 -6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 07 $21 −$1 -4%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Sep 04 $16 −$3 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $188 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $1 91d
CA Mineiro vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 107d
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 129d
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 147d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 203d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 224d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 64¢ $32 275d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 65¢ $33 275d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 276d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 276d
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? SELL Down 52¢ $21 276d
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? BUY Down 55¢ $22 276d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 64¢ $16 278d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 65¢ $16 278d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 48¢ $21 280d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 49¢ $22 280d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 283d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 283d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 289d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 289d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL Yes 47¢ $20 292d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY Yes 49¢ $21 292d
Will no leader be out in 2025? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 295d
Will no leader be out in 2025? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 300d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.58 · official $187.58 (match) · 31 history records