Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x786c…dd20 sports 319 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,265 (-10%) realized −$2,256 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%127W / 188L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$765
7 days+$765
14 days+$617
30 days−$1,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,728
other 3% +$291
world 0% −$23
crypto 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +35.3% +22.4% 47% 42% +36.8%
≤30d 139 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 37% -17.3%
≤90d 196 -12.5% -20.8% 39% 37% -15.5%
all 315 -10.7% -19.2% 40% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -13.5%
10% -26.9% 35% -21.8%
15% -34.0% 32% -29.4%
20% -40.5% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$46 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$2,256
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses127 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions5
Markets (closed)315 / 319
History coverage339d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 41¢ 36¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 46¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs MIBR (BO1) Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $102 +$131 +129%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 +$127 +250%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $1 $0 +26%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $501 +$30 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $28 −$28 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $61 +$64 +105%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $10 +$49 +474%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $51 +$56 +109%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $301 +$52 +17%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 28 $103 +$569 +554%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $99 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $52 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 +$32 +165%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $418 −$413 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $183 +$170 +93%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $768 −$760 -99%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$62 +203%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$83 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $590 +$191 +32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $697 −$692 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $51 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $531 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $501 4h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 32¢ $20 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 14¢ $15 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 58¢ $101 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 76¢ $1 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $301 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 29h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 54¢ $51 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 40h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $51 40h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $99 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $58 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $52 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $19 14d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 14d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $418 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.78 · official $146.67 (match) · 650 history records