Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x7869…872e crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-8%) realized −$317 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$250
14 days+$250
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$579
sports 16% +$56
other 7% +$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤30d 4 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤90d 4 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +35.0%
all 52 +1.6% -8.1% 58% 40% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 40% -18.0%
10% -16.9% 31% -25.9%
15% -24.9% 23% -33.0%
20% -32.3% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$317
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage143d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $100 +$15 +14%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $101 +$31 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $206 +$192 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET Feb 11 $445 −$337 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 11 $120 −$70 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 10 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 10 $23 +$15 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 10 $17 +$6 +34%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 10 $469 −$186 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 10 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 08 $296 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 07 $276 +$20 +7%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 07 $272 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 06 $261 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 06 $245 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$21 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 04 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 04 $40 +$74 +185%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$35 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $40 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$45 +226%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 03 $10 +$3 +29%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $100 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 19h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $206 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $28 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $342 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $108 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $100 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $25 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $94 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.12 · official $297.12 (match) · 128 history records