Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7869…9e32 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$6
other 23% +$1
crypto 10% −$1
sports 6% −$9
politics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 0% -10.7%
all 33 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -11.6%
10% -21.1% 3% -20.0%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage486d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $27 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $35 +$3 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $34 −$3 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $2 $0 +23%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alessandro Bastoni be named the Champions League Final man of the May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur May 24 $17 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $17 $0 +1%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $34 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $34 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $27 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $39 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $35 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records