Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:14:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7868…1a22
other · 11 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$8
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%
Chart Positions 3 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Zion Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -84%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 95% −$5
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 25% -42.6%
≤30d 8 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 25% -42.6%
≤90d 8 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 25% -42.6%
all 8 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 25% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 25% -42.6%
10% -28.7% 25% -48.1%
15% -35.5% 25% -53.1%
20% -41.9% 12% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.58 · official $7.58 (match) · 21 history records