Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7868…817f world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$6
other 21% −$2
politics 18% −$1
sports 12% +$1
weather 1% −$9
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.6% -7.2% 22% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 25 +2.8% -7.0% 36% 12% -8.9%
≤90d 57 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 9% -9.4%
all 64 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 6% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage482d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $62 −$3 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 +$3 +31%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $87 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $3 +$1 +36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $34 +$11 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $30 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $35 −$4 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +14%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $12 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $9 $0 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $1 $0 -11%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $15 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $8 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $36 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $6 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $8 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $35 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $13 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $25 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $31 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $14 44h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $9 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $46 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $2.00 (match) · 293 history records