Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

78 0x7865…e80e other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$66 (-17%) realized −$42 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$17 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$287

Realized−$42

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage17d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	75¢	70¢	$311	$287	−$24 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$39	−$38	-99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$20	−$19	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	74¢	$4	15m
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	75¢	$260	51m
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	76¢	$28	1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	75¢	$22	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$4	14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$2	14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$39	16d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.94 · official $286.94 (match) · 9 history records