Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7863…d8a1 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 45L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 15% +$3
politics 11% −$6
sports 2% +$73
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +6.4% -3.7% 12% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 52 +8.3% -2.0% 27% 21% -7.9%
all 62 +6.7% -3.4% 27% 18% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 18% -9.3%
10% -12.7% 18% -17.9%
15% -21.1% 16% -25.9%
20% -28.9% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage576d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $425 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +48%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$6 +52%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 +$7 +105%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $43 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 06 $26 +$29 +113%
Flames vs. Avalanche Mar 31 $26 +$8 +30%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $21 +$24 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 24h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 25h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 46h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 47h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $10 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.90 · official $88.90 (match) · 240 history records