Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x785f…c1b5 other 68 markets active 18h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,907 (-7%) realized −$28,263 · open +$2,356
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,216per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$31,800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,937
7 days+$10,207
14 days−$28,417
30 days−$28,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$45,179
other 41% +$12,405
economics 8% +$2,356
sports 5% +$2,227
crypto 3% +$1,842
finance 1% +$230
weather 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +24.3% +12.5% 64% 53% -2.3%
≤30d 67 +14.4% +3.5% 66% 49% -17.4%
≤90d 67 +14.4% +3.5% 66% 49% -17.4%
all 67 +14.4% +3.5% 66% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.5% 49% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.4% 33% -25.3%
15% -15.5% 27% -32.6%
20% -23.8% 15% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$3,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$615 vs −$2,412 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$31,800
Realized−$28,263
Unrealized+$2,356
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage24d
Avg bet$5,216
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $29,444 $31,800 +$2,356 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $705 +$199 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21,580 +$2,039 +9%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $509 −$366 -72%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$86 -42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,005 +$192 +10%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$160 -78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,508 +$307 +20%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$121 -60%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20,094 +$3,602 +18%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,016 −$812 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $507 −$406 -80%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $505 +$276 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,011 +$398 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $707 +$362 +51%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$65 -63%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $336 +$1,458 +434%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,627 −$664 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31,042 +$631 +2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $509 −$347 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,479 +$1,532 +15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$296 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,020 +$722 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,003 +$106 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,008 +$317 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6,048 +$2,152 +36%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $30,000 +$910 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$683 -67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,013 +$481 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,012 −$1,909 -95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,920 +$1,395 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 −$43 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,014 −$1,122 -56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,027 +$1,259 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,022 +$1,103 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,030 +$1,220 +24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,008 +$376 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 17h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $142 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $20,072 20h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $892 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $117 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 40h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $44 40h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $3,748 41h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 43h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $83 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 44h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 44h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 47h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $204 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $20,094 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $101 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,799.99 · official $31,799.99 (match) · 187 history records