Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x785e…106e
crypto · 1777 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1321 / 377
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions79
Markets (closed)1698 / 1777
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 79 History 1698 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$33
14 days−$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 62¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will Dalourny Nemorin be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? No 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 65¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 63¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? No 64¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 76¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 70¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 70¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 71¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 73¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 75¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 75¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 72¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 74¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 67¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? No 78¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 61¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Panathinaikos Athens win Greek Basketball League? No 74¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 80¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$9
other 1% −$2
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 80¢ $1 5h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1 5h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 80¢ $1 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 66¢ $1 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 71¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 65% -15.1%
≤30d 1698 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 70% -9.9%
≤90d 1698 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 70% -9.9%
all 1698 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 70% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 70% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 44% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 21% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.54 · official $76.55 (match) · 3500 history records