Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7859…7e8e sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-16%) realized −$76 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$55
other 12% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.0% -30.3% 25% 25% -27.6%
≤30d 8 -23.0% -30.3% 25% 25% -27.6%
≤90d 8 -23.0% -30.3% 25% 25% -27.6%
all 8 -23.0% -30.3% 25% 25% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 25% -27.6%
10% -37.0% 25% -34.5%
15% -43.1% 25% -40.8%
20% -48.6% 25% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$53 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 38¢ $75 $51 −$24 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$165 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 −$42 -43%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$49 +98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $76 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $100 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $75 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $57 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 29¢ $56 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $99 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $1 44h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $50 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $99 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.14 · official $51.14 (match) · 13 history records