Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7857…c0c5 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 22% −$21
politics 9% +$16
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$4
world 3% +$1
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage138d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $943 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $717 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $868 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $457 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $832 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $309 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $668 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $725 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $310 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $362 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $169 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $202 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $293 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $203 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 23 $356 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $83 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $83 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $83 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $83 12h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $83 13h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $83 15h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $83 16h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $83 24h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 25h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 28h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 32h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $84 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $84 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $84 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.92 · official $82.92 (match) · 1387 history records