Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7855…1b17 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%49W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$7
weather 32% −$19
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.7% -36.4% 47% 32% -26.3%
≤30d 48 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 40% -19.7%
≤90d 121 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 33% -16.6%
all 121 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 33% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 33% -16.6%
10% -21.2% 29% -24.6%
15% -28.9% 22% -31.9%
20% -35.8% 17% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses49 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage69d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 64¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +305%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -83%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 27? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29? May 29 $1 +$3 +247%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$2 +201%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28? May 28 $4 −$3 -84%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27? May 27 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22? May 24 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 21? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 22? May 22 $1 +$2 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 18? May 21 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21? May 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 10¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 8¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.30 · official $2.30 (match) · 370 history records