Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7854…16ea
world · 226 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses83 / 140
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)223 / 226
History coverage46d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 3 History 223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$42
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 62¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 66¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 13 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $43 $0 +1%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $90 −$3 -3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$6
crypto 16% −$23
other 15% −$12
sports 9% −$2
finance 7% −$8
tech 5% −$21
politics 5% −$8
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 37¢ $6 49m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $5 2h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 61¢ $4 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 32¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $5 2h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1 3h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5 3h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $12 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 7h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 27¢ $4 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $4 8h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $5 9h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 33¢ $4 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5 11h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 61¢ $5 11h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 60¢ $5 11h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 27¢ $2 11h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -2.7% -12.0% 51% 5% -12.2%
≤30d 166 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 4% -12.2%
≤90d 223 -4.2% -13.3% 37% 4% -12.2%
all 223 -4.2% -13.3% 37% 4% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -12.2%
10% -21.6% 2% -20.6%
15% -29.2% 2% -28.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.87 · official $5.02 (match) · 917 history records