Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

78 0x7852…3a25 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$33 (-15%) realized +$66 · open −$99

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-13.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-4.5%	-13.6%	40%	40%	-36.8%
≤30d	5	-4.5%	-13.6%	40%	40%	-36.8%
≤90d	5	-4.5%	-13.6%	40%	40%	-36.8%
all	5	-4.5%	-13.6%	40%	40%	-36.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.6%	40%	-36.8%
10%	-21.9%	40%	-42.9%
15%	-29.4%	40%	-48.4%
20%	-36.4%	40%	-53.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$66

Unrealized−$99

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$100	$1	−$99 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	Jun 17	$20	+$30	+150%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever	Jun 17	$7	−$6	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$12	+112%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$74	−$62	-84%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9	−$9	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	SELL No	100¢	$50	1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever	BUY Toronto Tempo	2¢	$1	5h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever	BUY Toronto Tempo	2¢	$1	5h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever	BUY Toronto Tempo	15¢	$5	5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	BUY No	40¢	$20	6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	7¢	$22	7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$12	9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$37	9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$37	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.47 · official $1.47 (match) · 13 history records