Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7851…d471 sports 502 markets active 2h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,895 (-2%) realized −$2,740 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%250W / 247L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1,060est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,014
7 days+$2,628
14 days+$2,628
30 days+$2,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$4,130
politics 4% −$5,764
other 3% −$1,822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% +14.1%
≤30d 38 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 47% +7.0%
≤90d 234 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -4.6%
all 497 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 50% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 50% -11.4%
10% -15.8% 50% -19.9%
15% -23.9% 50% -27.6%
20% -31.4% 50% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$332 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$1,326
Realized−$2,740
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses250 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,060
Open positions5
Markets (closed)497 / 502
History coverage700d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 62¢ $423 $554 +$130 (+31%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 34¢ $375 $259 −$116 (-31%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 56¢ $180 $224 +$44 (+24%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 46¢ $202 $209 +$7 (+3%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 13¢ $300 $80 −$220 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $369 +$331 +90%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $341 +$359 +105%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $438 +$362 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $256 −$252 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $381 −$375 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 24 $326 −$320 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $239 +$261 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $173 +$127 +73%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $383 +$317 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $101 −$99 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $320 −$315 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $625 +$675 +108%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $264 −$264 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $806 +$694 +86%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $752 +$648 +86%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $271 −$266 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $292 −$287 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $257 −$252 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $274 −$270 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $125 +$175 +140%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $378 +$322 +85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $232 −$228 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $215 +$185 +86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $536 +$564 +105%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $367 +$632 +172%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $118 −$115 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $738 +$561 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $374 −$368 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $264 −$260 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $199 −$195 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $322 +$278 +86%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 02 $298 −$294 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 02 $321 −$315 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $537 +$463 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 27 $155 +$145 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 24 $484 −$477 -99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 24 $437 −$430 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $390 −$385 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 22 $414 −$408 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $508 +$492 +97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 May 21 $441 −$441 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $558 −$550 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $199 +$301 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 20 $309 −$306 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 May 20 $304 −$300 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $359 −$352 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $475 −$468 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $183 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $206 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $381 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $430 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $304 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $438 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $369 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $256 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $341 4h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $381 4h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $326 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $77 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $101 8h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $239 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $383 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $320 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $173 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $141 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $1 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $240 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $9 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $264 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $227 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $484 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $322 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $271 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $752 30h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $292 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,325.53 · official $1,325.60 (match) · 974 history records