Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x784f…5df9
politics · 66 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
−$66,043 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$173,146 · open −$119,103
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$13,832
Realized−$173,146
Unrealized−$119,103
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses27 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions80
Markets (closed)194 / 66
Avg bet$8,028
Trades / day56.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 80 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149,202
7 days−$149,202
14 days−$149,922
30 days−$174,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $2,090 $2,375 +$285 (+14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 97¢ $1,296 $1,543 +$247 (+19%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 65¢ $1,069 $1,102 +$33 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 36¢ 22¢ $1,080 $645 −$435 (-40%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 18¢ $914 $577 −$336 (-37%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 21¢ 12¢ $616 $367 −$249 (-40%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $350 +$50 (+17%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $301 $315 +$14 (+5%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $300 −$100 (-25%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $275 $293 +$19 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $260 $258 −$2 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $1,760 $256 −$1,504 (-85%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $277 $249 −$28 (-10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 1¢ $780 $225 −$555 (-71%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $121 $225 +$104 (+86%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4,504 $209 −$4,295 (-95%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4,169 $170 −$3,999 (-96%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 84¢ $138 $169 +$31 (+22%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2,812 $164 −$2,647 (-94%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 81¢ $151 $163 +$12 (+8%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8,284 $160 −$8,124 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4,231 $148 −$4,082 (-96%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,227 $134 −$3,093 (-96%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 24¢ 4¢ $905 $133 −$772 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Jun 12 $2,967 −$3,509 -118%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 12 $237 −$741 -312%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1,813 +144193%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first round of Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Jun 12 $3,385 −$3,920 -116%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,897 +$327 +17%
Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidentia Jun 12 $861 −$861 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 12 $323 −$321 -99%
Will Franco Parisi win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 12 $427 −$413 -97%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $34 +$112 +328%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $1,993 −$4,342 -218%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Jun 12 $7,223 −$7,626 -106%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 16-22? Jun 12 $563 −$563 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 12 $4 −$33 -896%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Jun 12 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $19 +$1,510 +7926%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jun 12 $1,020 −$976 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 12 $3,365 −$5,136 -153%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Jun 12 $266 −$266 -100%
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec Jun 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Jun 12 $2,977 −$2,905 -98%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26? Jun 12 $864 −$864 -100%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $151 +$311 +206%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 12 $348 −$343 -98%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $1,008 −$29,813 -2959%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jun 12 $1,449 −$2,617 -180%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 12 $789 −$2,067 -262%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kast win by 20% to 25%? Jun 12 $2,595 −$2,628 -101%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% −$68,986
other 15% −$75,118
world 10% +$1,642
economics 0% −$555
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 7h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $2,204 10h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $410 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $1,828 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $781 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $350 10h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $421 11h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $136 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $618 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $19 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $1,520 12h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $16 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $91 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $30 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $1,500 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $30 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $600 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $721 12h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 14h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $14 14h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 14h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $267 15h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $185 15h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $309 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -3.9% -13.0% 7% 7% -90.3%
≤30d 182 +7.0% -3.2% 12% 10% -53.7%
≤90d 194 +4.7% -5.3% 14% 11% -44.9%
all 194 +4.7% -5.3% 14% 11% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 11% -44.9%
10% -14.3% 9% -50.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 9% -55.0%
20% -30.2% 8% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,832.01 · official $13,778.96 (match) · 3500 history records