Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x784f…d4d9 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$8
politics 22% $0
other 10% −$1
crypto 4% +$3
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.2% 23% 0% -11.4%
all 29 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage450d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 51¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $35 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $24 −$3 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 09 $26 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 04 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $24 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $22 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $22 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $35 23h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $32 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $32 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $30 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $32 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $29 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $2 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $34 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $1 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 23¢ $1 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $19 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $24 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 34d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records