Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x784f…252e world 47 markets active 1d ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1
other 13% +$1
crypto 9% −$5
politics 8% −$1
sports 6% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.1% -11.5% 30% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 46 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage464d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $7 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $6 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 22 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $6 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 29 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 23 $6 −$1 -21%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $7 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $36 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $37 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $37 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $35 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $17 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records