Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x784d…ecfc
crypto · 848 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12,843 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,486 · open +$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$288
Realized−$19,486
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses426 / 421
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)847 / 848
History coverage22d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day150.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 847 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$255
7 days−$367
14 days−$11,868
30 days−$19,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 62¢ 78¢ $230 $288 +$58 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $370 +$182 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $226 −$184 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $349 +$196 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $236 +$115 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $441 −$24 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $154 −$83 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $322 −$276 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $156 +$174 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$75 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $83 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $287 −$202 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $402 +$132 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $639 +$130 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $154 −$131 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $154 +$77 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $165 −$106 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$67 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $239 −$145 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $146 +$194 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $339 +$207 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$171 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $338 +$175 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$185 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $289 −$221 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $114 +$122 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$103 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $113 −$74 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$79 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $84 −$75 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$113 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$37 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $145 −$93 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $118 +$29 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $82 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $112 −$100 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $83 −$78 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $93 −$92 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$19,428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $236 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $552 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $370 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $42 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $206 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $545 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $349 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $351 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $236 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $231 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $183 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $187 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $259 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $175 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $70 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $46 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $322 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $330 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $465 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 48% -11.3%
≤30d 847 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 48% -18.6%
≤90d 847 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 48% -18.6%
all 847 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 48% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover150.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 48% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 44% -26.4%
15% -32.1% 38% -33.5%
20% -38.8% 30% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.28 · official $273.40 · 3500 history records