Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x784c…dd05 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$206 (-17%) realized −$206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$20
14 days−$39
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$94
crypto 18% −$55
world 9% −$1
sports 5% −$61
politics 4% $0
economics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.0% -13.1% 12% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 15% 0% -24.3%
≤90d 38 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 29% -26.8%
all 38 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 29% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 29% -26.8%
10% -27.3% 24% -33.8%
15% -34.3% 16% -40.2%
20% -40.8% 11% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage75d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -3%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $65 −$17 -26%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $27 −$12 -45%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 27 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 14 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 13 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 13 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $25 −$12 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $49 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 09 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $108 −$104 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $100 +$69 +69%
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30? Apr 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Apr 08 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $47 38m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 39m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $59 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $49 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $60 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $15 37h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $45 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 37h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $65 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $65 47h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $48 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 23¢ $11 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 45¢ $13 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 45¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 52¢ $15 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 52¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.03 · official $106.03 (match) · 119 history records