Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7847…4007 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$346 (+3%) realized +$451 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days+$490
14 days+$658
30 days+$1,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$216
world 26% +$917
sports 25% +$93
economics 5% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +69.5% +53.4% 75% 75% +45.4%
≤30d 14 +24.5% +12.6% 79% 57% +9.6%
≤90d 23 +7.7% -2.5% 65% 43% -2.7%
all 23 +7.7% -2.5% 65% 43% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 43% -2.7%
10% -11.9% 30% -12.0%
15% -20.4% 26% -20.5%
20% -28.2% 22% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$145 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$451
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage73d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$332 +325%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 +$72 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$86 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$110 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $101 +$26 +26%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $87 +$5 +6%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$73 +72%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $501 +$37 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,100 +$830 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $502 +$73 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,400 +$103 +7%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $1,512 −$68 -4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $506 −$200 -40%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 08 $101 +$68 +68%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 30 $330 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 24 $502 −$167 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $100 −$16 -16%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Paris Basketball Apr 20 $400 +$49 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No $10 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $101 8d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $87 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $175 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 13d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,930 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,100 16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,400 39d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,444 42d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,512 48d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $205 48d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $206 48d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $301 49d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 59¢ $101 52d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 45¢ $102 54d
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas BUY Fenerbahce 99¢ $330 60d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No $335 66d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No $502 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $84 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.11 · official $5.11 (match) · 46 history records