Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7845…0586
other · 58 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage593d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $88 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$6 +44%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 17 $6 +$5 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 17 $9 +$8 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 17 $13 +$7 +50%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$5 +104%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $8 +$4 +59%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $24 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +1%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Apr 02 $38 −$38 -100%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 25 $22 +$15 +67%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5) Mar 24 $22 +$20 +88%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $13,512 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 73% −$14
politics 18% −$8
other 6% +$8
sports 1% −$6
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 20d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $87 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $87 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $88 26d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $88 26d
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $8 28d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $87 32d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 32d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $92 33d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $92 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 14% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 44 +6.8% -3.3% 30% 20% -9.4%
all 57 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 16% -9.6%
10% -14.1% 16% -18.3%
15% -22.4% 14% -26.2%
20% -30.0% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.11 · official $14.11 (match) · 253 history records