Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7845…417b other 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$44,181 (-24%) realized −$42,787 · open −$1,394
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%183W / 231L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$12,706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$624
7 days−$6,246
14 days−$8,730
30 days−$17,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$14,272
sports 22% −$5,939
world 14% −$10,270
tech 11% −$1,869
crypto 8% −$6,728
politics 7% −$1,736
culture 3% −$2,845
economics 2% −$839
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -27.6% -34.5% 49% 49% -36.7%
≤30d 77 -24.6% -31.8% 44% 44% -44.2%
≤90d 179 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 47% -36.2%
all 414 -22.6% -30.0% 44% 41% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 41% -33.0%
10% -36.7% 32% -39.4%
15% -42.8% 23% -45.3%
20% -48.4% 17% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$330 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$12,706
Realized−$42,787
Unrealized−$1,394
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses183 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions35
Markets (closed)414 / 450
History coverage221d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $1,509 $1,429 −$79 (-5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $812 $969 +$157 (+19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $863 $950 +$86 (+10%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $710 $695 −$15 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $621 $672 +$51 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $706 $640 −$66 (-9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $544 $508 −$36 (-7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $432 $507 +$75 (+17%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $499 $495 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $560 $478 −$82 (-15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $361 $449 +$88 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $356 $432 +$76 (+21%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 60¢ $420 $416 −$4 (-1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $394 $400 +$6 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $383 $380 −$2 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 42¢ $526 $380 −$145 (-28%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $504 $372 −$132 (-26%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 58¢ 81¢ $203 $282 +$79 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $242 $276 +$34 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $190 $265 +$75 (+39%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $342 $237 −$105 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $250 $198 −$52 (-21%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $294 $180 −$114 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $298 $178 −$119 (-40%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 42¢ $232 $156 −$77 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $503 +$132 +26%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $514 +$166 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $346 +$254 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $420 +$180 +43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $109 −$108 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $312 −$306 -98%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $600 +$135 +22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $718 +$232 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $574 −$567 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,533 −$1,518 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $584 −$578 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,051 −$1,040 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,529 −$1,520 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $261 −$256 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $517 −$510 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $820 −$814 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $310 +$290 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $300 +$90 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $611 −$606 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $102 +$48 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,623 +$352 +13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,201 +$268 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $215 +$130 +61%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,027 +$786 +77%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $617 +$383 +62%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $318 +$282 +89%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$100 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$104 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $207 −$204 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $434 +$266 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,078 −$1,078 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $308 −$304 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $323 −$320 -99%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $310 −$307 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $466 −$460 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $567 −$567 -100%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 +$197 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $304 +$126 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $414 −$269 -65%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,208 −$1,593 -72%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $432 +$268 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $302 +$178 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $345 −$342 -99%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,155 −$552 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $478 −$472 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $196 −$140 -71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10,386 −$5,565 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $125 0m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $385 1m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $425 38m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $522 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 61¢ $92 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $177 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $87 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $64 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 57¢ $96 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $7 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $3 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $420 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $346 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $514 29h
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 79¢ $279 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 78¢ $224 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $312 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $444 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $59 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $70 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,533 4d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $568 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $16 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,051 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,705.89 · official $12,701.78 (match) · 3125 history records