Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7843…7f7d sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$301 (-12%) realized −$295 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%73W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days−$10
14 days+$33
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$271
other 6% +$12
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.6% -37.2% 27% 27% -10.7%
≤30d 82 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 34% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 39% -20.0%
all 186 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 39% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 39% -20.0%
10% -23.4% 39% -27.7%
15% -30.8% 38% -34.7%
20% -37.6% 30% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses73 / 113
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage47d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 38¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$50 +325%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 +$23 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 +$101 +164%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $26 +$30 +119%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$38 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $94 +$71 +76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $61 +$76 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$51 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$51 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 +$23 +550%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $22 +$7 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 +$15 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $21 +$14 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$29 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$51 +165%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner May 29 $4 +$11 +257%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $46 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $31 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $40 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $35 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $31 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 36h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $26 36h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $25 45h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $36 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 2d
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $26 2d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $49 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $35 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $31 4d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $94 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $26 6d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.22 · official $173.22 (match) · 320 history records