Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
78 0x7843…fd3c other 397 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$353 (+3%) realized +$457 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%179W / 196L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$219
14 days+$340
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 22% −$7
economics 20% −$1
politics 15% −$15
tech 12% −$37
sports 10% +$139
crypto 7% +$97
finance 5% +$16
world 4% +$164
culture 3% −$8
weather 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +50.7% +36.3% 69% 62% +12.2%
≤30d 115 +14.0% +3.2% 57% 54% +5.6%
≤90d 281 -0.9% -10.3% 48% 42% -5.4%
all 375 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 42% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 42% -5.6%
10% -17.0% 38% -14.6%
15% -25.0% 33% -22.8%
20% -32.4% 27% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$457
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses179 / 196
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)375 / 397
History coverage211d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $62 $44 −$17 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $52 $37 −$15 (-30%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 56¢ $51 $34 −$17 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $24 −$15 (-39%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $16 −$8 (-32%)
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No 40¢ 64¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+60%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-70%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $122 +$19 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $5 +$12 +250%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$7 +85%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $19 −$1 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $12 +$32 +267%
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? Jun 26 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 26 $96 +$18 +19%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $46 +$10 +22%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $54 +$10 +19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $99 +$25 +26%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $16 +$13 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $3 +$12 +414%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $87 +$64 +73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $55 +$6 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $75 +$11 +14%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 22 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $35 −$14 -39%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $16 −$8 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +24%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +43%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $109 +$109 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $4 +$6 +142%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $6 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $18 −$13 -74%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 16 $24 +$33 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$9 -77%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$6 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$16 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $140 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 15¢ $4 14h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 28¢ $5 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 25h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $122 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 41h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 43h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $33 43h
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $18 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 70¢ $39 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $56 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 18¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.03 · official $247.74 · 1407 history records