Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x7841…1f04 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$57 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$215
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$2
sports 28% +$30
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +68.1% +52.1% 75% 75% +52.6%
≤30d 22 -16.4% -24.3% 45% 45% -7.6%
≤90d 22 -16.4% -24.3% 45% 45% -7.6%
all 22 -16.4% -24.3% 45% 45% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 45% -7.6%
10% -31.6% 45% -16.4%
15% -38.2% 41% -24.5%
20% -44.3% 36% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$57 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage14d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 26¢ 22¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$65 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$230 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$58 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $526 −$501 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $102 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 12d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $6 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 13d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Czechia 56¢ $5 14d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.93 · official $182.93 (match) · 40 history records