Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7840…716e
crypto · 1642 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$135 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$134 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses891 / 750
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1641 / 1642
History coverage120d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1641 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$12
14 days+$16
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 20¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -8.2% -16.9% 46% 46% -14.6%
≤30d 176 +3.8% -6.0% 52% 52% -5.7%
≤90d 1290 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 52% -9.3%
all 1641 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 54% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 54% -7.1%
10% -17.1% 52% -16.0%
15% -25.1% 46% -24.1%
20% -32.5% 38% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $1.76 (match) · 3500 history records