Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
78 0x783e…2ead sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,292 (+218%) realized +$1,292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +239% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +207% what you keep after slip
Net edge+207%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+207.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +239.3% +207.0% 67% 67% +320.8%
≤30d 3 +239.3% +207.0% 67% 67% +320.8%
≤90d 3 +239.3% +207.0% 67% 67% +320.8%
all 3 +239.3% +207.0% 67% 67% +320.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +207.0% 67% +320.8%
10% +177.6% 67% +280.5%
15% +150.8% 67% +243.8%
20% +126.2% 67% +210.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +365% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +239% · $-wt +365% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,108 vs −$56 · ×19.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×39.71 per $1 lost it wins $39.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage6d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $237 +$874 +368%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $298 +$1,341 +449%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,112 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $12 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $225 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,639 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $297 28h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records