Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x783a…d3f1
sports · 151 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$10 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses62 / 80
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)142 / 151
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 8 History 142 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$0
14 days−$10
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +107%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Niger vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +103%
Togo vs. Benin: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$2 +105%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$2 +180%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$2 +119%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$14
other 31% −$6
crypto 4% +$2
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 12h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 16h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $1 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $2 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $1 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 39h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 45h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 55¢ $2 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -22.7% -30.1% 37% 37% -9.5%
≤30d 138 -3.0% -12.2% 42% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 142 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 44% -5.9%
all 142 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 44% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 44% -5.9%
10% -19.2% 43% -14.9%
15% -27.0% 43% -23.1%
20% -34.1% 41% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.92 · official $13.92 (match) · 305 history records