Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
78 0x7839…60ab other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+19%) realized +$131 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$7
crypto 15% +$77
sports 14% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% +15.0%
≤30d 6 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% +15.0%
≤90d 6 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% +15.0%
all 6 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 67% +15.0%
10% -11.9% 67% +4.0%
15% -20.4% 67% -6.0%
20% -28.2% 50% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$49 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $102 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 −$87 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $73 +$40 +55%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $76 +$54 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 +$52 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 +$77 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 13h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win BUY 1¢ $10 37h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlan BUY 3¢ $10 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 58¢ $76 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $108 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $105 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.64 · official $203.66 (match) · 15 history records