Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7837…8f97 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$68 (-1%) realized +$269 · open −$337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$9,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$354
crypto 23% −$15
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -18.4%
≤30d 2 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -18.4%
≤90d 2 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -18.4%
all 2 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 0% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 0% -26.2%
15% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
20% -40.8% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$16 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9,637
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)2 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 84¢ $1,531 $2,398 +$867 (+57%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 88¢ $1,533 $1,837 +$305 (+20%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 96¢ $766 $988 +$223 (+29%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $827 $824 −$3 (-0%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $746 $732 −$14 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $681 $670 −$10 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $643 $638 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $366 $368 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $343 $328 −$15 (-4%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $252 $252 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $237 $238 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $222 $220 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $411 $117 −$294 (-71%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $22 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $214 −$14 -6%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $113 −$18 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $83 4m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $28 4m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $79 4m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $12 7m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $95 7m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $86 11m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $5 12m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $4 12m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $2 21m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $3 21m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $13 21m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 22m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 26m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $0 27m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $4 29m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $0 31m
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 31m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 31m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $2 31m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $1 32m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $2 32m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $1 32m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $0 32m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $30 32m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $3 32m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $60 34m
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 34m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $9 35m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 35m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $69 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,636.91 · official $9,636.91 (match) · 198 history records