Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x7836…d4b3 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 38% +$1
politics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 45 +0.4% -9.1% 42% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage475d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on May May 07 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $14 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph's Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $6 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $33 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.88 · official $35.88 (match) · 144 history records