Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7834…0f4b other 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$91 (+1%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%15W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$28
crypto 28% +$2
sports 21% +$34
world 14% +$2
tech 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 40% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +3.4% -6.5% 86% 29% -8.8%
≤90d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 93% 14% -9.0%
all 16 +1.9% -7.8% 94% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 12% -8.8%
10% -16.6% 12% -17.5%
15% -24.7% 6% -25.5%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$224 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage99d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $489 +$111 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $489 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $350 +$139 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $572 −$224 -39%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? Jun 01 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 27 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 09 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 Apr 22 $569 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $564 +$6 +1%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 03 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $563 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $535 +$28 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? Mar 14 $534 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records