Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7831…1d01 world 221 markets active 7h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$12 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%98W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$2
14 days+$37
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$36
world 17% +$29
other 12% −$3
finance 5% −$16
politics 3% −$11
sports 2% +$6
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 43% -11.9%
≤30d 85 +21.3% +9.7% 47% 39% +7.0%
≤90d 168 -14.2% -22.3% 39% 30% -22.3%
all 204 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 37% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 37% -11.6%
10% -17.4% 30% -20.0%
15% -25.4% 26% -27.8%
20% -32.7% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses98 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)204 / 221
History coverage164d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 40¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No 20¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 39¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +192%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $8 +$8 +102%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +418%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$6 +644%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +123%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 +$3 +263%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +181%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$10 +241%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$13 +423%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 25h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 25h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $3 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.58 · official $30.60 (match) · 484 history records