Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x782f…bda7 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-2%) realized −$57 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%84W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$256
14 days+$180
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$149
other 28% −$92
sports 16% +$26
crypto 11% +$18
economics 3% −$147
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +63.8% +48.2% 46% 46% +60.0%
≤30d 45 +9.2% -1.2% 38% 38% +13.0%
≤90d 163 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 44% -4.7%
all 192 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 42% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 42% -10.1%
10% -23.1% 39% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 32% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 26% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses84 / 108
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)192 / 199
History coverage488d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 25 $10 +$99 +958%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 25 $180 +$85 +47%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $46 +$59 +128%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $12 −$6 -53%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 24 $20 +$34 +169%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$7 +94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$14 -61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$31 +125%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 −$18 -48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 −$55 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +107%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +589%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 09 $121 +$36 +30%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $61 −$12 -20%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $203 +$77 +38%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 24 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 24 $67 +$66 +98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 100¢ $142 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 23¢ $6 23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 35¢ $7 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 46¢ $17 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 47¢ $12 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 36¢ $20 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 78¢ $24 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 42¢ $11 4d
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 44¢ $28 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 52¢ $7 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 91¢ $5 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 49¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $7 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $5 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 5d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $4 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $20 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 7d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 97¢ $28 7d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 44¢ $12 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 87¢ $123 7d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $25 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $25 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL 83¢ $55 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.64 · official $3.64 (match) · 492 history records