Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x782f…13bd crypto 1103 markets active 5d ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$644 (-10%) realized −$644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%437W / 666L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day61.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$175
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$794
sports 4% −$61
politics 0% −$4
other 0% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.2% -15.1% 26% 26% -14.5%
≤30d 611 -22.5% -29.9% 37% 32% -21.5%
≤90d 1103 -19.5% -27.2% 40% 32% -22.4%
all 1103 -19.5% -27.2% 40% 32% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 32% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 25% -29.9%
15% -40.5% 19% -36.6%
20% -46.3% 15% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses437 / 666
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1103 / 1103
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day61.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$12 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$14 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$14 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$25 +777%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records