Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x782e…a271 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% $0
world 25% +$2
politics 23% $0
culture 11% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -8.7%
all 41 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage283d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 53¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $66 +$4 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 19 $22 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 9h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $34 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $12 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $51 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $45 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.34 · official $41.34 (match) · 149 history records