Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
78 0x782e…e910 other 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$3,072 (+25%) realized +$3,110 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%87W / 172L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$760
7 days+$1,032
14 days+$1,023
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$660
sports 22% +$1,722
world 21% +$1,549
crypto 3% −$192
finance 1% −$68
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +173.2% +147.2% 44% 44% +104.1%
≤30d 50 +70.3% +54.1% 34% 34% -4.7%
≤90d 208 +22.1% +10.5% 30% 28% +5.7%
all 259 +30.4% +18.0% 34% 31% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 31% +15.7%
10% +6.7% 30% +4.6%
15% -3.6% 28% -5.5%
20% -13.1% 27% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$31 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$3,110
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses87 / 172
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions25
Markets (closed)259 / 286
History coverage110d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 18¢ 52¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+197%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+102%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-70%)
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-85%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-88%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$8 -74%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$90 +873%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Jun 27 $21 −$16 -76%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 +$103 +500%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -24%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a dra Jun 26 $10 +$595 +5784%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$69 +226%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 +$109 +354%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 +$7 +35%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 +$79 +768%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +51%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 +$104 +510%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 +$16 +77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$85 +119%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +146%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$149 +98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$69 +226%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +194%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Oman win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $114 −$110 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA SELL Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 26h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA BUY Yes 27¢ $21 26h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Colombia vs Portugal BUY Yes 27¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 55¢ $123 28h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 30h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 37h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 17¢ $20 40h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026 BUY 1¢ $10 40h
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Colombia vs Portugal F BUY Yes 18¢ $10 41h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 84¢ $139 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a dra BUY 2¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.38 · official $268.45 (match) · 746 history records