Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x782d…4843 politics 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$285 (-0%) realized −$287 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,502per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$99
other 36% +$17
sports 13% −$216
world 3% −$7
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 78 -2.8% -12.0% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 134 +0.3% -9.2% 18% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 13% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 13% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 10% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,074) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$13 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,502
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $329 $331 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,791 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $2,061 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 17 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $952 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,657 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,944 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,588 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,603 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $4,323 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,541 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $75 +$62 +83%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,445 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4,067 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,471 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $348 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $685 +$2 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $3,147 −$3 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $508 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $3,406 −$4 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,074 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $6,897 −$6 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $6,020 −$6 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,329 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $4,359 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,422 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $614 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $615 2h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $522 17h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $523 18h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $480 23h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $481 25h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $711 43h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $712 45h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $925 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $926 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $950 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $952 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,011 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,012 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $742 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $743 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $998 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $329 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,291 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,293 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,344 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $947 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.66 · official $330.66 (match) · 479 history records