Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x782d…9a3a world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4
politics 15% $0
other 14% $0
sports 6% +$1
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 20% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 20% 0% -10.8%
all 32 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -10.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$4 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 70°F or higher on April 18? Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 04 $12 −$1 -8%
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $31 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $9 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $25 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $34 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $28 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $28 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records