Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7828…a44f other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$216 · open −$144
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$59
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$87
sports 13% +$6
world 7% +$12
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 18 -26.8% -33.8% 72% 0% -8.6%
all 38 -17.5% -25.4% 55% 21% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 21% -8.6%
10% -32.5% 18% -17.3%
15% -39.0% 18% -25.3%
20% -45.0% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$1,431
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage707d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Oswin Appollis: 3+ goals No 99¢ 90¢ $1,570 $1,428 −$142 (-9%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trincão: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,571 +$15 +1%
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals Jun 17 $565 +$6 +1%
Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals Jun 16 $566 +$6 +1%
Pedri: 3+ goals Jun 15 $571 +$11 +2%
Ross Stewart: 3+ goals Jun 14 $566 +$6 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $565 +$6 +1%
Julio Rodríguez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $475 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $451 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $306 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Belarus 0 - 3 Burkina Faso? Jun 09 $501 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $193 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $4 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 2? Dec 04 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 02 $4 +$2 +61%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump positive favorability on Day 100? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bird flu pandemic in 2024? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala go on Lex Fridman podcast? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kamala Harris and JD Vance debate before election? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SAVE act becomes law before election? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Another South American country bans X? Oct 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? Oct 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Oct 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? Oct 17 $1 +$5 +488%
Will the Teamsters endorse a Democrat? Sep 05 $2 +$1 +81%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $1 +$3 +213%
Trump speaks on RNC Day 3? Aug 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? Jul 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Oswin Appollis: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,571 1h
Trincão: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,571 23h
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $565 37h
Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $566 2d
Pedri: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $571 2d
Ross Stewart: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $566 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $565 5d
Julio Rodríguez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $475 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $451 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $198 8d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 98¢ $306 8d
Exact Score: Belarus 0 - 3 Burkina Faso? BUY No 98¢ $501 9d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $193 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 10d
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 72d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 164d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $3 188d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $4 192d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) BUY 3DMAX 22¢ $3 195d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 2? BUY Up 89¢ $6 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 199d
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether BUY Yes $1 361d
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 391d
Trump positive favorability on Day 100? BUY Yes $2 414d
Solana all time high by March 31? BUY Yes $2 471d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 471d
US national XRP reserve in 2025? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 471d
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 627d
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 627d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,430.86 · official $1,430.86 (match) · 82 history records