Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7826…0744 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-42%) realized −$4 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$19
other 14% −$2
world 5% $0
sports 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -65.7% -68.9% 17% 0% -59.8%
≤30d 6 -65.7% -68.9% 17% 0% -59.8%
≤90d 6 -65.7% -68.9% 17% 0% -59.8%
all 6 -65.7% -68.9% 17% 0% -59.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.9% 0% -59.8%
10% ← realistic here -71.9% 0% -63.6%
15% -74.6% 0% -67.1%
20% -77.1% 0% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No $14 $6 −$7 (-53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes $16 $6 −$10 (-62%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $0 $0 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -94%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 40m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.71 · official $16.71 (match) · 56 history records