Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7820…5723 crypto 73 markets active 7d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,186 (+14%) realized +$1,272 · open +$5,914
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$21,419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$103
30 days−$2,839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$1,592
world 38% +$2,109
other 6% −$1,365
sports 1% −$8
culture 1% +$206
tech 0% +$24
finance 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 34 -36.2% -42.2% 38% 26% -20.3%
≤90d 58 -36.6% -42.6% 38% 21% -21.0%
all 58 -36.6% -42.6% 38% 21% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 21% -21.0%
10% -48.1% 14% -28.6%
15% -53.1% 12% -35.5%
20% -57.7% 9% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$159 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$21,419
Realized+$1,272
Unrealized+$5,914
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions15
Markets (closed)58 / 73
History coverage51d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 61¢ 99¢ $6,999 $11,300 +$4,301 (+61%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 72¢ 96¢ $4,294 $5,747 +$1,453 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 31¢ $1,295 $3,181 +$1,886 (+146%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes $661 $762 +$101 (+15%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $225 $240 +$15 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $106 $130 +$24 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes $619 $25 −$594 (-96%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 12¢ $202 $11 −$191 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 11¢ $575 $10 −$565 (-98%)
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes $130 $4 −$126 (-97%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 39¢ $359 $3 −$356 (-99%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes $16 $1 −$16 (-94%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes $7 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 21 $432 +$94 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $146 −$131 -90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $348 +$33 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $159 −$54 -34%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Reina Goto Jun 06 $198 −$32 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $80 +$31 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $2,551 +$181 +7%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 in June? Jun 04 $285 −$278 -98%
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Jun 04 $93 +$4 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 04 $96 −$10 -11%
Will BNB dip to $600 in June? Jun 04 $520 −$515 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $305 −$195 -64%
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? Jun 04 $501 −$332 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $542 −$170 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $73 −$69 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $9 +$3 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $833 −$595 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $1,490 +$298 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $171 −$150 -88%
Bitcoin above 73,600 on May 29, 9PM ET? May 30 $1,128 +$168 +15%
Bitcoin above 73,200 on May 29, 8PM ET? May 30 $567 −$268 -47%
Bitcoin above 73,600 on May 29, 8PM ET? May 30 $776 +$42 +5%
Bitcoin above 73,200 on May 29, 9PM ET? May 30 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin above 74,200 on May 29, 3PM ET? May 29 $208 +$52 +25%
Bitcoin above 74,000 on May 29, 3PM ET? May 29 $761 +$393 +52%
Bitcoin above 73,800 on May 29, 3PM ET? May 29 $1,231 +$123 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $1,760 +$302 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 29 $85 −$80 -94%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $2,686 −$748 -28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $7,737 −$868 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $2,900 −$1 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? May 28 $14 −$6 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $126 +$412 +328%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? May 28 $3 +$2 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $205 −$181 -88%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $78 −$18 -23%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? May 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 11 $318 +$225 +71%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 11 $157 −$86 -55%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May May 09 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 09 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 09 $142 −$133 -94%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $89 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $370 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $497 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes $124 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,222 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,418.81 · official $21,418.81 (match) · 863 history records