Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7820…0797 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$164 (+4%) realized +$187 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$360
other 25% −$89
crypto 4% −$73
world 2% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -3.9%
≤30d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -3.9%
≤90d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -3.9%
all 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 52% -3.9%
10% -25.1% 48% -13.1%
15% -32.4% 38% -21.5%
20% -39.0% 29% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$73 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,363
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions21
Markets (closed)21 / 42
History coverage4d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 62¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 54¢ 54¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 46¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 73¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 53¢ $25 $23 −$3 (-10%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $212 +$68 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $162 +$109 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $222 +$106 +48%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $221 +$35 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $242 +$74 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -7%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$33 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $262 +$114 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $143 +$216 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $71 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $181 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $81 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $41 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $152 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $81 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $172 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 41h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 41h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 41h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 41h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $26 41h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 41h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 41h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 42h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 46h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $212 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $162 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 67¢ $222 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.53 · official $1,362.56 (match) · 63 history records